Over the next 10 days, I am going to discuss the five teams that stand to benefit the most from the lockout, as well as the five teams that stand to lose the most.
Neither the owners nor the players want the outcome of the ongoing CBA negotiations to be a lockout, but both sides are prepared to remain in the sidelines for the first few months of the 2012-13 season.
- Lockout Beneficiaries, Part I: Long Island
- Lockout Beneficiaries, Part II: Philadelphia
- Lockout Beneficiaries, Part III: ?
- Lockout Beneficiaries, Part IV: ?
- Lockout Beneficiaries, Part V: ?
Back in 2004, there were several players and teams that came out of the lockout refreshed, recharged, and ready. Teemu Selanne is the most obvious example. The Finnish Flash used the year off to completely rehabilitate his wonky knees, and he has been one of the best forwards in the NHL since that time.
Several young players spent an extra year developing, including Eric Staal and Jason Spezza, who both dominated the AHL. Staal emerged as a superstar after the lockout ended, racking up 100 points 2005-06 and leading Carolina to the Stanley Cup, while Spezza led Ottawa to the Stanley Cup Final just one year later. The elite draft crop from 2003 was given another year of developmental time, as NHL teams weren’t able to rush players from the CHL or Europe to the NHL. The 2005-06 rookie crop was one of the strongest ever, and several players benefitted from more time developing, including the likes of Alex Ovechkin, Dion Phaneuf, Jeff Carter, Ryan Getzlaf, Mike Richards, and Zach Parise.
This time around, there are several young players who will either stay in Major Junior or Europe or go down to the AHL if the start of the season is delayed. In general, the younger teams like Edmonton and Long Island stand to benefit, while the aging teams like San Jose, Detroit, and Vancouver stand to lose out. However, it isn’t that simple.
Read on to find out one team that would be able to use the lockout to develop their young talent, heal up a banged up back end, and find a veteran defenseman via free agency or the trade route.
The Flyers, unlike many of the NHL’s other contending teams, feature a very young core of players. Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell and Ilya Bryzgalov notwithstanding, all of Philadelphia’s top players are under the age of 30 (and many of them are under the age of 25, too). The Flyers wouldn’t see their window close with a lockout, as they should be a good team for a long time.
The Flyers have a very banged up defensive group. Chris Pronger (concussion) likely won’t ever play again). Timonen just started skating after offseason back surgery. Andrej Meszaros is out until at least December or January with an Achilles injury. Andreas Lilja is out until November, and you know things are desperate when the health of Lilja is a significant concern.
Right now, Timonen and Braydon Coburn would be expected to carry the defensive group. Behind them, it falls off after veteran Nicklas Grossman, who came over from Dallas last season. There are some decent young defensemen (Marc-Andre Bourdon, Erik Gustafsson, and Brandon Manning), but none of the three are sure things to be ready for a top four role in 2012-13. Luke Schenn is also in the mix, but his play has regressed significantly since he came into the NHL as a rookie. A change of scenery will hopefully do wonders for the former 1st round pick.
Gustafsson is the most offensively-inclined of the three, while Bourdon is probably the most NHL ready, from a defensive standpoint. Manning is more of a two-way defenseman.
Up front, the Flyers would be able to send Eric Wellwood, Zac Rinaldo, Sean Couturier, and Brayden Schenn to the AHL. Schenn, in particular, would benefit from some time down there – he is poised for a breakout performance at the NHL level, and that extra bit of confidence would go a long way.
Schenn is going to be a very good player one day, but a bit more time in the AHL could mean that he arrives a bit sooner.
Finding a ‘D’
The Flyers have expressed interest in Jay Bouwmeester, and they likely have dipped their toe in the water with free agents like Carlo Colaiacovo and Michal Rozsival. A delayed season would give them more time to figure out the best course of action for adding another defenseman. If the season is delayed long enough, perhaps they just wait for Meszaros to be fully healthy? A top four with Timonen, Coburn, Grossman, and Meszaros is very respectable, and the pressure on the youngsters wouldn’t be nearly as high in a depth role.
The Flyers are one of a few contending teams that stand to benefit (on the ice, at least) from a delayed start to the 2012-13 season. It would give some of their young players more time to develop at the AHL level, it would give some of their injured defensemen time to get fully healthy before the puck drops, and it could be a springboard to stardom for both Couturier and Schenn, just like it was for Staal and Spezza back in 2004-05.